再次做客BBC！美联储开年议息在即，「GTC泽汇」首席分析师解析政策走向与市场变数
BBC 连线「GTC泽汇」首席分析师Jameel Ahmad，美联储本周料维持利率不变，2024年三次降息推动美国GDP达2.5%。特朗普关税政策若冲击消费或致2025年多次降息，科技股短期盈利放缓但受减税政策支撑长期看涨。
BBC NEWS: Hello, and welcome to Business Today with me, Steve Lai. Now, it's a big week for markets, with investors eyeing the Federal Reserve's first policy decision of the year on Thursday. Their meeting comes hot on the heels of U.S. President Donald Trump's comments to attendance at the World Economic Forum in Davos last week, where he demanded that interest rates drop immediately. Also, during the week, we get a report card from the tech giants of Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Tesla. For more on the outlook for markets and the new era of Trump, let's bring in Jameel Ahmad. He's Chief Analyst at GTC Global Trade. Jameel, thanks for joining me today. Now, it's great to get your thoughts on this busy week ahead, as we've just been outlining. Given Trump's call for lower rates, do you think the Fed is going to be perhaps swayed by anything he says or does?
BBC NEWS：欢迎收看《今日财经》，我是Steve Lai。本周市场迎来关键一周，投资者聚焦美联储年内首次政策决议（周四公布）。此次会议紧随特朗普总统上周在达沃斯世界经济论坛要求"立即降息"的言论。此外微软、Alphabet、Meta和Tesla等科技巨头将发布财报。关于市场前景与特朗普新时代影响，我们连线GTC Global Trade首席分析师Jameel Ahmad。Jameel，感谢参与节目。针对特朗普的降息呼吁，您认为美联储会受其言行影响吗？
GTC GROUP: Absolutely not, Steve. The central bank is completely independent of any kind of outside interference. And we have to take into account here that sometimes the bark is worse than the bite. Because last week, yes, he called for lower interest rates. But if you remember, in the lead up to the November 2024 presidential elections, he also said that, yes, he can give an opinion, but the Fed is left to do its own job. And that's going to be the reality. The Fed cut interest rates three times in 2024. Since then, growth has remained very resilient in the United States, far ahead of its developed peers. GDP for 2024 was expected to be 2%. The reality is somewhere close to 2.5%. So we could argue that actually lower interest rate policy has provided the medicine that's the economy needed to kickstart, which we can't say for the European Union. We can't say for the United Kingdom. So the Fed's doing a good job. However, what I do think we can talk about is that after that blowout U.S. monthly job support early this month, more than 250,000 jobs were added in December, markets completely dialed down their hype on Fed expectations this year. Should these tariffs come into play? Should they impact consumer spending in the U.S. economy, which is the highest contributor of GDP growth? It impacts the everyday person in the street. And should that lead to a downside risk on economic growth this year, then yes, the Fed may cut more than once in 2025. I think everybody's looking at the inflation threats, but they're not looking at the reality, which is the direct impact on the ground. And that's the economic macro matter that matters the most to the Fed.
GTC泽汇：绝无可能，Steve。美联储完全独立于任何外部干预。我们需要理解政治喊话往往雷声大雨点小——尽管特朗普上周要求降息，但回顾2024年11月总统大选前，他也曾表态尊重美联储独立性。事实上，美联储2024年三次降息成效显著：美国经济增长韧性远超其他发达经济体，2024年GDP增速预期2%最终实现近2.5%，证明宽松政策有效激活经济动能，这是欧盟和英国未能企及的。不过需注意，本月早前公布的超预期非农数据（12月新增就业25万+）已大幅压低市场对今年降息的押注。若关税政策落地冲击消费（美国GDP增长最大引擎），切实影响民众购买力并形成经济增长下行风险，则2025年美联储或被迫启动多次降息。当前市场过度关注通胀威胁，却忽视了政策对实体经济的实际传导效应——这才是美联储决策的核心考量。
BBC NEWS: So you think Jerome Powell will hold things steady then this Thursday, that things perhaps won't change, that inflation is at a comfortable level right now?
BBC NEWS：您认为Jerome Powell本周四将维持现状？当前通胀水平是否处于舒适区间？
GTC GROUP: For now, yes.
GTC泽汇：现阶段确实如此。
BBC NEWS: And what do you think we should expect then throughout the 2025 then from the Fed? Do you think they're going to have to, I suppose, wait and see exactly what Trump decides to do with tariffs?
BBC NEWS：展望2025年美联储政策路径，是否需要观望特朗普关税政策动向？
GTC GROUP: Yeah. This is the unknown. Exactly. We have to wait and see. As we spoke about before, we know Make America Great Again version two is going to be Make America Great Again on steroids compared to what we saw last time. Nonetheless, this is the reality, and we're all going to watch this movie unfold.
GTC泽汇：这正是最大不确定性。正如我们此前讨论的，"让美国再次伟大"2.0版将比初代更具政策激进性。我们都在见证这部"政策大片"的剧情展开。
BBC NEWS: And it's a big, a big week as well for earnings, a lot of big tech giants are going to be releasing their numbers. So what are you expecting to see?
BBC NEWS：本周科技巨头财报潮来袭，您有何预期？
GTC GROUP: Well, look, the threat is that we're seeing from the tech giant so forth is that earnings are starting to slow in comparison to previous quarters. However, one of those Trump plays is that we're going to see lower taxes, more fiscal stimulus and so forth, which in the longer term improves profitability, not just for tech, but for all of the listed companies. So should that come out in the earnings, actually we see some upside potential for upcoming quarters. The tech rally can continue, and we have to take into account now that tech giants are so big, it's no longer the big five, it's the big seven, soon it'll be the big 11 and so forth. They have a market capitalization far more than major economies, and I don't see that trend finishing.
GTC泽汇：科技企业盈利增速确实呈现环比放缓趋势，但特朗普政策组合拳（减税+财政刺激等）中长期将提升全行业盈利空间——若财报体现这些积极因素，科技股反弹行情或将延续。值得注意的是，科技巨头阵营持续扩容，从"五大"到"七大"即将迈向"十一大"，其总市值已超越多数主要经济体规模，这种扩张趋势远未见顶。
BBC NEWS: All right. Thanks very much, Jameel. We'll leave it there for now. Jameel Ahmad, Chief Analyst at GTC.
BBC NEWS：感谢Jameel的精彩分析。以上就是GTC泽汇首席分析师Jameel Ahmad带来的市场洞察。
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