全球市场情绪与贸易战影响丨「GTC泽汇」首席分析师再做客FRANCE 24
France 24 连线「GTC泽汇」首席分析师Jameel Ahmad，美墨、美加达成协议使全球市场趋稳，但贸易战威胁仍存，本周金价创新高。英央行本周四或降息，美国明日将公布就业报告，都备受关注。
France 24: It's time now to check in with the day's business news. For that, we're joined by Jameel Ahmad, Chief Analyst at GTC. Jameel, how are the global markets trading? Are investors still wary or are they shaking off the latest trade war concerns?
France 24: 现在为您播报今日财经要闻。我们连线GTC首席分析师Jameel Ahmad。Jameel，当前全球市场交易情绪如何？投资者仍保持谨慎，还是已逐渐消化最新贸易战担忧？
GTC Group: Well, after the panic at the beginning of the week, after the threats on the likes of Canada, Mexico and of course China that retaliated, actually there's more calm in global markets and that's as a result of the deals that were made specifically between the U.S. and Mexico and the U.S. and Canada, albeit that might actually just be a temporary deal given that there has been a deadline provided. Nonetheless, that has provided investors with some hope that actually a global trade war in some ways can be reduced, the probability as a result of this appearing to be more of a negotiation tactic rather than a reality of actually putting tariffs on other economies. With that said, we have had comments from U.S. central bank officials come in this week warning about the impact of the threats of a potential trade war. And I would also point out that gold prices have hit more than one new record high this week. That suggests that investors are using gold as a hedge in case of more economic uncertainty in light of the potential trade war.
GTC泽汇：经历周初针对加拿大、墨西哥特别是中国实施关税威胁引发的市场恐慌后，目前全球市场已趋于平静。这主要得益于美墨、美加之间达成的协议——尽管鉴于协议设定了截止期限，可能仅是权宜之计。但至少让投资者看到全球贸易战风险局部缓和的希望，因为这些关税威胁更像是谈判策略而非真正落地措施。不过需要指出，本周多位美联储官员已就潜在贸易战影响发出警告。此外值得注意的是，金价本周已多次刷新历史高位，这表明投资者正通过黄金对冲潜在贸易战带来的经济不确定性。
France 24: Meanwhile, the Bank of England is set to hand down its latest monetary policy decision this Thursday. What are we expecting?
France 24: 英国央行将于本周四公布最新货币政策决议，市场有何预期？
GTC Group: There's around a 95% probability of the Bank of England, the U.K. central bank cuts in interest rates today. That would be the third interest rate cut in roughly the past six months. What investors are looking for though, however, is guidance on what the Bank of England might do over the remainder of 2025. Of course, the U.K. central bank was a little bit later than the likes of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank to cut interest rates last year. Although inflation is expected to edge a little bit higher than the United Kingdom over the coming months, economic momentum does appear to be tailing off. And I do think the Bank of England might signal another two interest rate cuts over the course of 2025. Though, of course, they will be somewhat concerned about the threats of the global trade war.
GTC泽汇：目前市场定价显示，英国央行今日降息概率高达95%。这将是过去六个月来第三次降息。但投资者更关注的是该行对2025年剩余时间的政策指引。虽然英国央行去年降息步伐慢于美联储和欧洲央行，但未来数月英国通胀预计将小幅回升，而经济动能似乎正在减弱。我认为英国央行可能释放2025年还将降息两次的信号，当然全球贸易战威胁也会纳入其考量范畴。
France 24: Tell us about some of the other key economic data to keep an eye on for the rest of the week.
France 24: 本周还有哪些重要经济数据值得关注？
GTC Group: Tomorrow, the main event is going to be the latest U.S. monthly jobs reports. Of course, this comes on the back of last month where the United States added more than 250,000 jobs to its economy. That was a blockbuster number and that led to substantially and drastically downback expectations over the U.S. Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in 2025. We are now looking to see whether tomorrow's agenda provides more guidance as towards the momentum of the U.S. economy. Of course, that's the first U.S. monthly jobs report since President Trump returned to the White House, but also to provide more guidance on what the Federal Reserve might do over the course of 2025 in terms of U.S. interest rates.
GTC泽汇：明日焦点当属美国月度非农就业报告。上月美国新增就业岗位超过25万个，这一亮眼数据大幅削弱了市场对美联储2025年降息的预期。此次数据将揭示美国经济动能是否延续，这也是特朗普重返白宫后的首份就业报告，同时为研判美联储2025年利率路径提供新线索。
France 24: All right, Jameel Ahmad from GTC, thank you very much for that business updates.
France 24：感谢GTCFX的Jameel Ahmad带来的财经解读。
+971 800 667788
留言 