亚洲市场波动加剧，科技巨头财报季拉开帷幕｜GTC首席分析师再次做客France 24
France 24 独家专访「GTC泽汇」首席分析师Jameel Ahmad解读全球市场概况：亚洲市场因特朗普对哥伦比亚加征关税引发贸易担忧而波动，科技巨头财报季本周开启。分析师认为本周美联储 100% 不会降息，还将关注其对 2025 年政策的看法及经济数据表现。
France 24: We've checked in on some business news now, and while Asian markets fluctuated this Monday on fresh trade fears after Donald Trump decided to impose those tariffs on Colombia, which we were just talking about, that's about said to have been cleared up for now, at least. But in other business headlines, well, big tech's earnings season kicks off this week with a flurry of announcements from some of the industry's most important players. To get more on this, we can cross to Chief Market Analyst at GTC, Jameel Ahmad. Jameel, firstly, what are the main market trends?
France 24: 现在来看看财经新闻。本周一，亚洲市场因特朗普决定对哥伦比亚加征关税而出现波动，这一消息引发了新的贸易担忧。不过，目前这一问题似乎已经暂时得到解决。在其他财经头条中，科技巨头的财报季本周正式拉开帷幕，多家行业领军企业将陆续发布财报。接下来，我们连线GTC首席分析师Jameel Ahmad。Jameel，目前市场的主要趋势是什么？
GTC Group: Well, I think you just pointed out there's a lot of sensitivity to headlines that you've just been saying in the introduction regarding the supposed or the threats and trade tariffs. Definitely when it comes to that presidency, we all know that the marketing tool or the messaging that was used before the election was that trade tariffs or tariffs will be the favorite word in the dictionary. And I think we've seen that come to fruit. Overall, investors are looking at a big week in financial markets because we have to hear from the central banks. Also, we've got a number of earning reports on the technology giants. This week alone, we're going to hear from Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, and then Apple at the end of the week. Obviously, these huge, huge companies have such a huge market capitalization and value now that equates to more than a number of major economies. So that's going to win the market. But this Trump news and the headlines and sensitivity, that's also going to be driving sentiment. And I think investors are definitely going to be kept on their toes one way or another.
GTC泽汇：你刚才提到的那些关于贸易关税的威胁和头条新闻确实引发了市场的敏感反应。我们都知道，在选举前，贸易关税或关税问题曾是特朗普总统常用的营销工具或信息传递手段。现在，我们看到这些言论正在变为现实。总体而言，投资者正迎来金融市场的重要一周，因为我们将听到多家央行的政策动向。此外，多家科技巨头的财报也将陆续发布。仅本周，我们将听到微软、Meta、特斯拉的财报，而苹果则将在周末公布财报。显然，这些巨头公司的市值和估值已经超过了许多主要经济体的规模，因此它们的表现将对市场产生重大影响。然而，特朗普的新闻和头条消息以及市场的敏感性，也将继续影响市场情绪。我认为，投资者需要时刻保持高度警惕。
France 24: Do you think that the Fed is going to cut rates now? Trump has been asking for them, but many say it's unlikely.
France 24: 你认为美联储近期会降息吗？特朗普一直在呼吁降息，但许多人认为这不太可能。
GTC Group: No chance. Categorically, this week, 100% chance of no interest rate cuts at all. And we also have to take into account here that in some ways the buck is worse than the bite. Because yes, he may have said for lower interest rates immediately. However, if we go back towards the days before the presidential elections in November 2024, he also said that while he can give his opinion on central bank policy, he cannot influence the Fed. And this is where we see some contradiction of both. But again, this is what we expect. This is what we knew we were going to get across different matters. This Make America Great Again version 2, we all watch version 1. But we're going to see the same movie play out. We're just seeing the movie be accelerated towards more action sooner than maybe we saw in version 1.
GTC泽汇：不可能。本周美联储降息的概率为零，完全不可能发生。而且我们也要注意到，某种程度上，言辞比行动更具影响力。特朗普虽然公开呼吁降息，但在 2024 年 11 月总统大选前，他也曾表示，虽然他可以就央行政策发表意见，但他并不能直接影响美联储的决策。这实际上是一个自相矛盾的立场。不过，这也正是我们所预料到的情况。我们都知道，不同的问题上会出现这样的局面。我们可以把当前的局势看作是“让美国再次伟大”2.0 版本。第一版的剧情我们已经看过了，而现在的区别在于，这部“续集”似乎比第一版来得更快、更激进。
France 24: Okay, I'm liking the confidence. What else are you keeping an eye on, Jameel?
France 24: 你对这一观点很有信心。那么，接下来你还会关注哪些市场动态呢？
GTC Group: Actually, we're going to be paying attention to the central bank decision from the Fed, not because of this, well, instruction that came in from the US president, but actually because we need to have an update on what their opinion is on central bank policy for 2025 overall. Heading into 2025, we did think that we would get maybe another two interest rate cuts, adding to the three that we saw in 2024. However, since then, economic data of the United States has remained very strong. The economy added more than 250,000 jobs. Last month, we've seen some upward revisions of GDP growth. So, potentially, they don't need to actually cut interest rates further. But it's whether they're concerned about tariffs, or maybe some other downside global economic risks. So, that's what we're waiting for this week, because there is some uncertainty in the air when it comes to what the Fed, US central bank's intentions are for 2025, regardless of what headlines we might be seeing come through, following some certain comments.
GTC泽汇：我们将密切关注美联储的央行决策，不是因为特朗普的施压，而是因为我们需要了解美联储对 2025 年整体货币政策的看法。
进入2025年，市场普遍预计美联储可能会再降息两次，作为 2024 年三次降息的延续。然而，自那以后，美国的经济数据一直非常强劲。上个月，美国新增了超过25万个就业岗位，GDP增长也出现了一些上修。这意味着，美联储可能并不需要进一步降息。但问题是，他们是否担心关税问题，或者其他全球经济下行风险。这也是我们本周密切关注的焦点，因为目前市场仍对美联储 2025 年的政策方向存在一定的不确定性，尤其是在近期一些言论和政策消息的影响下。
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