全球市场波动，“美国优先”对市场有什么影响？｜「GTC泽汇」分析师再次做客France 24
-采访日期11.7 2024
France 24 连线「GTC泽汇」首席分析师Jameel Ahmad解读全球市场前景。特朗普胜选后市场重新定价“美国优先”政策，预计企业盈利增加、股市上涨。同时，比特币和美元可能走强，而通胀预期和利率政策的重要性减弱。
France 24: It's time now to bring you the latest business news. For that, we say hello to Jameel Ahmad, who's a chief analyst at GTC. Jameel, it was a hectic day in the global markets on Wednesday. Tell us more about that.
France 24：现在为您带来最新的财经新闻。我们连线了GTC的首席分析师Jameel Ahmad。Jameel，周三全球市场的波动相当剧烈，您能为我们详细解读一下吗？
GTC Group：Indeed it was, and that's because we always said that neither outcome was pricing to the market. But now that this is settled, what investors are pricing in is the return of America first and always. And for global markets, in terms of U.S. financial markets in particular, what we saw in the first version of Make America Great Again was tax cuts, fiscal spending, deregulation, and that led to more profitability for companies. In version two, we're expecting the same narrative of that movie, and investors are now rushing to price that in. So it means more profitability, higher U.S. stock market sentiment, and so forth. And that's why we saw such shocks higher and surges in U.S. financial markets. The interesting thing is whether we're going to now see like a decoupling of the relationship because America first and always is so focused on American policies and American economy that maybe what drives sentiment for U.S. financial markets is not going to drive sentiment for other global markets during the second term in office.
GTC泽汇：确实如此，我们一直认为市场并没有完全反映出任何一种可能的结果。但现在尘埃落定，投资者们正在重新将注意力集中在“美国优先”这一政策上。回顾“让美国再次伟大”的第一阶段，美国通过减税、增加财政支出、放松监管等一系列政策，推动了企业盈利的大幅增长。我们预计，在第二阶段，这些政策主线将会得到延续，投资者们也正急于为此重新进行市场定价。因此，我们预计这将会带来更多的盈利，进一步提振美国股市的情绪等。这也正是我们看到美国金融市场出现大幅波动和上涨的主要原因。有趣的是，这种“美国优先”策略如此专注于美国国内的政策和经济，很可能会使得未来美国金融市场的情绪与全球其他市场的走势出现脱钩。
France 24: Okay, and what are the Trump trades that we need to watch out for?
France 24：那么，我们应该特别关注哪些与“特朗普交易”相关的内容呢？
GTC Group：Trump promised and pledged to make America the crypto capital of the world, and we saw another surge higher in Bitcoin, which moved towards new all-time highs above 70,000 U.S. dollars. And I think that we're going to be watching digital assets and cryptocurrencies very closely heading into the second presidency under Donald Trump. The other thing that we're going to be watching very closely is a much stronger U.S. currency, and that means the U.S. dollar. That's because America first and always and those America first policies does suggest more strength for the U.S. currency. And we cannot forget as well that there was a very famous comment during the end of the campaign that tariff should be the favorite word in the dictionary, which suggests more trade wars, suggests more trade tariffs on other trading partners of the United States. And all of that points towards more strength in the U.S. currency as a result.
GTC泽汇：特朗普曾经承诺要将美国打造成全球加密货币的中心，最近比特币再度上涨，突破了7万美元的历史新高。我认为，在特朗普的第二任期内，我们将密切关注数字资产和加密货币市场的走势。此外，我们还需要关注美元的走强趋势。因为“美国优先”政策暗示了美元有走强的可能性。同时，我们不能忽视他在竞选结束时提到的“关税应该是我字典中最喜欢的词”——这意味着未来可能会有更多的贸易战以及对其他国家的关税措施。这一切都预示着美元的进一步走强。
France 24: And prior to the U.S. elections, inflation expectations and interest rate policy were the dominating macro themes. Does this now change?
France 24：在美国大选之前，市场的主要宏观主题是通胀预期和利率政策。那么现在这些主题还依然重要吗？
GTC Group：We can throw those macro themes out of the window now. We might see them continue up until the inauguration, but very much now focused on this America first and always pledges and also make America great again. We saw the first movie, so we know the narrative that we saw between 2016 and 2020. But make America great again in the second sequel, in version 2.0, we expect it to be on a complete different level to the first movie. And that's why we're going to see a complete different shift in investor themes and focus. And I think we start to see some of those trends creep in into sentiment during the election outcome yesterday. But as the inauguration comes close to early 2025, I think we're not going to be focused on inflation expectations anymore. We're very much going to be focusing on what America first policies and what America first and always is going to mean under the second presidency of Donald Trump.
GTC泽汇：我们可以暂时把这些宏观主题放在一边了。或许在正式就职之前，它们还会在市场上持续一段时间，但现在市场的重心已经转向了“美国优先”以及“让美国再次伟大”的承诺。我们经历过2016年到2020年的“第一部”，对政策的走向有了一定的了解，但这次的“续集”很可能会在更高的层面上进行展开。投资者的主题和关注点将发生彻底的转变。我认为，一些新的趋势已经在大选结果公布时影响了市场情绪，而到2025年初就职典礼临近时，市场将不再聚焦于通胀预期，而是更加聚焦于特朗普第二任期内“美国优先”政策的具体落实情况。
France 24: All right, Jameel Ahmad, thank you very much for keeping an eye on all the important business news.
France 24：好的，非常感谢你，Jameel Ahmad，为我们带来最新的财经动态。
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