美大选对金融市场的潜在影响丨「GTC泽汇」首席分析师再做客FRANCE 24
France 24 连线「GTC泽汇」首席分析师Jameel Ahmad，深入解析全球市场动态。由于不确定性，市场风险偏好下降。如果特朗普胜选，美元可能继续走强；而Kamala Harris胜出则可能导致美元走弱，并重新关注宏观主题和新兴市场。
France 24: Okay, well, let's turn briefly to some business news now. Look at how the markets are shaping up, we can cross over to Jameel Ahmad, Chief Analyst with GTC. Good morning, Jameel. So tell us, how are the markets looking this Tuesday?
France 24：好的，接下来我们简要回顾一下财经新闻，了解一下当前的市场动态。现在，让我们连线GTC泽汇的首席分析师Jameel Ahmad。早上好，Jameel。请问，今天的市场情况是怎样的呢？
GTC Group：This morning we are seeing a little bit more of a nervous atmosphere which isn't a surprise given the event that's upcoming today. Of course, we might not actually know the election results instantly. It might drag on until the end of this week. Investors don't know and because investors do not like uncertainty, that's why we're seeing a little bit more less risk being put into the market today.
GTC泽汇：早上好。今天早上市场显得有些紧张，这并不意外，因为今天即将发生一些重要事件。虽然选举结果可能不会立即揭晓，可能会拖延到本周末，但投资者对此并不确定。他们不喜欢不确定性，这也是今天市场风险偏好有所下降的原因。
France 24: Indeed, uncertainty, not a good thing. Now, Jameel, you spoke to France 24 yesterday about the impact on the US dollar if Donald Trump won the presidential elections. But what about if Kamala Harris wins?
France24：确实，不确定性总是让人头疼。Jameel，昨天你在France24提到了如果Donald Trump赢得总统选举对美元的影响。那么，如果Kamala Harris获胜，情况会怎样呢？
GTC Group：So, the interesting thing is that we saw the dollar strengthen throughout October as some of the better markets suggested that the previous president is the leading candidate. Now, over the weekend, we started to see some of those opinion polls suggest that actually this race is still very much neck and neck. And some headlines even suggested that Kamala Harris is leading the race. Of course, time will tell. But we did see a sharp sell-off on the US dollar on Monday. So, I think that if the Democratic candidate does win, we're likely to see the resumption of dollar weakness and we're likely to see the resumption of macro themes such as interest rate policy, what's happening with inflation, and we should also see stronger appetite to emerging markets because naturally, America first and always, as the previous president has promised to bring back, does suggest issues for China, trade relations and so forth. So, I think those are the type of trends we might see if Kamala Harris is victorious.
GTC泽汇：这个问题很有趣。我们注意到，10月美元走强，因为一些市场表现更好的迹象暗示前总统可能是领先的候选人。然而，刚过去的周末，一些民调显示竞选形势非常接近，甚至有一些头条新闻称Kamala Harris领先。当然，最终结果还需要时间才能揭晓。不过，周一我们确实看到了美元的大幅下跌。因此，如果民主党候选人获胜，我们很可能会看到美元再次走弱，并且一些宏观主题，如利率政策、通胀趋势等，会重新受到关注。同时，投资者对新兴市场的兴趣可能会增加，因为“美国优先”的政策可能会带来与中国的贸易关系问题等。所以我认为，如果Kamala Harris获胜，这些趋势可能会更加明显。
France 24: Of course, from that front, we just have to wait and see. And as you could say, it could be a couple of days if we don't get them immediately. The US election is dominating a lot of our coverage, but what else on the financial front might we keep an eye on this week?
France24：当然，从这个角度来看，我们还需要继续观察，可能要等几天才能得到最终结果。美国大选确实占据了大量报道的焦点，但在金融方面，本周我们还应该关注哪些方面呢？
GTC Group：We're still looking actually at some of the central bank meetings and we shouldn't forget that we actually do have an economic calendar this week included and we're expecting to hear from the US Central Bank. Having said that, given how historic and world-changing this presidential elections can be, and many are suggesting it might be the biggest elections of our lifetime, all eyes are very much on the United States presidential elections. But we shouldn't forget that we still don't have our economic data, but investors might put that on the sidelines until we get some indication over what the presidential election outcome will be, because we can argue that either outcome is priced in, whether the previous president wins or Kamala Harris is victorious. It doesn't look like either side of the coin has been priced into financial markets.
GTC泽汇：我们仍然需要关注一些央行会议，不能忽视本周的经济日历。我们预计会听到美联储的消息。然而，考虑到这次总统选举的历史性和深远影响，很多人认为这是我们一生中最重要的选举之一，全球的目光都集中在美国大选上。当然，我们不能忘记经济数据，但投资者可能会暂时将其搁置一旁，直到选举结果有进一步的明确迹象。可以说，无论是前总统胜出还是Kamala Harris胜出，似乎这两种结果都还没有在金融市场中得到完全反映。
France 24: Okay, it'll be interesting to check in with you maybe this time tomorrow, Jameel, to see how things have played out. For now, thanks very much indeed.
France24：好的，也许明天这个时候再次连线你会很有意思，我们可以看看事态如何进一步发展。现在先谢谢你，Jameel。
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