「GTC泽汇」分析师再次做客BBC｜解读美元与日元在美大选之后的走势

所属分类：公司资讯发布时间：2024-11-25 17:36 点击量：

BBC 连线「GTC泽汇」首席分析师Jameel Ahmad解读全球市场前景：随着美国大选临近，金融市场波动加剧。美元在10月份表现强劲，如果特朗普连任，这一趋势可能延续；而日元则因不确定性持续走弱。投资者需密切关注选情对全球经济的影响。

BBC：Now, aside from the vote in Japan, we're counting down to the U.S. presidential election, just eight days away, with the two candidates still battling it out on the campaign trail in what looks like a very tight race. Investors are paying close attention to the dollar. So far in October, it has been strengthening, with currency analyst Jameel Ahmad expecting that trend could continue if Donald Trump is re-elected.

BBC：那么，除了日本正在进行的投票，我们现在也在关注距离美国总统大选仅剩八天的紧张局势。目前，两位候选人仍在选战中激烈角逐，选情异常胶着。投资者们正密切关注着美元的走势。截至当前，美元在10月份展现出了强劲的表现，「GTC泽汇」首席分析师Jameel Ahmad认为，如果特朗普成功连任，这一上涨趋势可能会得以延续。

GTC Group：Well, we're already seeing some signs of that dollar appreciation being priced into the market, because if you look at the past month, the dollar index is up nearly 4%. That's a significant move, and that's taken the dollar from 100 to 1.004.5 as of time of this interview. In terms of the impact on the global economy, we have to take into account what Make America Great Again version 2 might mean for global markets. Given the last presidency, yes, we had uncertainty. However, to be fair, despite how controversial and some of the unpredictability of that administration, it was fantastic for U.S. financial markets, also fantastic for the U.S. currency. And I would expect those types of trends to continue or remain in place if he does win. With that said, we also have to take into account that if Kamala Harris is victorious and the opinion polls do appear to be neck and neck, although the better markets are very clear that one candidate is leading, then I would expect for that dollar weakness to start resuming back into the market and for financial market investors to be focusing on trendsetters, central bank policy, inflation. But the unknown is that the previous president who appears to be the leading candidate according to the better markets and how much uncertainty that might bring and what that might mean for world markets overall.

GTC泽汇：确实如此，我们已经观察到市场上正在消化一些美元升值的迹象。在过去的一个月里，美元指数实现了近4%的显著增长，从100攀升至104.5。从对全球经济的影响来看，我们必须思考“让美国再次伟大”2.0版本可能给全球市场带来的新局面。回顾特朗普上次执政时期，尽管充满了不确定性和争议，且政策难以预测，但客观地讲，这对美国金融市场和美元来说确实是个积极的因素。如果他再次当选，我预计这些积极趋势会持续甚至可能加强。当然，我们也要考虑到如果卡玛拉·哈里斯胜出的情况，而目前的民调显示两人势均力敌，尽管预测市场明确显示出某一位候选人的领先优势，但如果哈里斯胜出，我预计美元可能会重新走弱，金融市场的投资者也会重新将注意力转向趋势引导者、央行政策以及通货膨胀等方面。未知之处在于，目前预测市场认为特朗普仍是领先候选人，这可能带来的不确定性以及对全球市场的整体影响都值得我们深思。

BBC：Turning back to our top story, Japan, we've seen the yen depreciate this morning. Briefly, what do you think is coming up for the yen?

BBC：回到我们今天的头条新闻——日本。我们今天早上观察到日元出现了贬值。您能简要谈谈日元的前景吗？

GTC Group：The Japanese yen over the past month has gone all the way from 1.43 to as high as 1.53. That's 1,000 pips in a massive move in financial markets. Given the uncertainty, it's likely to continue in Japan. We're likely to see more Japanese yen weakness. We're just going to alert the Bank of Japan, who have been very concerned about Japanese yen currency weakness throughout this year anyway.

GTC泽汇：在过去的一个月里，日元从104.3一路贬值至113左右，这在金融市场上是1000个基点的大幅波动。鉴于当前的不确定性，日本的情况可能会持续下去，我们预计日元将继续走弱。同时，我们也会密切关注日本央行的动向，因为他们对日元疲软的态势一直表示担忧。