特朗普胜选后金融市场反应积极，“特朗普交易”逐步兑现｜「GTC泽汇」分析师再次做客France 24
France 24 连线「GTC泽汇」首席分析师Jameel Ahmad解读全球市场前景：特朗普胜选后，美元和比特币持续上涨，投资者乐观认可“让美国再次伟大”2.0版叙事。市场关注“特朗普交易”，央行政策动态被忽视，预计市场将继续关注美国大选影响。
France 24: Let's take a look at how the markets are doing on the back of all that, the dollar and bitcoin both continuing to rally in the wake of Donald Trump's election win, and indeed, upon hearing the names that may take up part of his cabinet, let's cross over to Chief Analyst at GTC, Jameel Ahmad, to find out a bit more. Jameel, it's now been a week since that election win for Donald Trump. As he names his team, it looks like investors are feeling positive.
France 24：让我们聚焦市场表现。特朗普赢得大选后，美元和比特币持续强劲上扬，特别是当他公布可能加入内阁的人选后。现在，我们连线GTC的首席分析师Jameel Ahmad，以获取更多信息。Jameel，特朗普赢得大选已过去一周，随着他公布团队成员名单，投资者情绪似乎相当乐观。
GTC Group: Investors are definitely positive, and they're certainly buying into that narrative that Make America Great Again version 2 will at least mean stronger environment for US companies itself. Again, it's very America-first, but that's what drives global market equity value anyway. That's why financial markets are reacting positive. What I think has been most interesting so far is that the previous themes such as what's happening with the central banks and macro data like inflation, to give you two examples, the US central bank cut interest rates last week, so did the Bank of England, but market moves and market headlines didn't pay much attention at all. So I think investors are definitely preparing now for 2025 and the second Trump inauguration, but overall, we're seeing stronger US financial market trend, stronger Bitcoin, stronger US dollar prices, and the key Trump trades that we thought we would see before the U.S. election anyway.
GTC泽汇：投资者显然持乐观态度，积极认可“让美国再次伟大”2.0版叙事，认为这将为美国企业创造更为有利的环境。这种“美国优先”的政策无疑推动了全球股权价值的上涨，这也是金融市场反应积极的关键所在。
当前，最引人瞩目的现象是，以往备受瞩目的主题，如中央银行的政策动态和宏观数据（如通胀）等，并未吸引市场太多关注。例如，美国中央银行与英格兰银行上周均采取了降息措施，但市场走势及相关头条新闻对此几乎未作出过多反应。因此，我认为投资者目前显然已在为2025年及特朗普的第二次就职做准备。总体来看，美国金融市场、比特币及美元价格均呈现走强趋势，而我们此前预计在大选前会出现的关键“特朗普交易”也正在逐步兑现。
France 24: Interesting, that delay perhaps there in reaction. Give us an idea of what are the key areas for this Trump trade?
France 24：很有意思，这种市场反应似乎有些滞后。能否为我们阐述一下“特朗普交易”的核心领域？
GTC Group: Well, it was the pledge and the promise. Again, this is an unpredictable and unconventional administration and we saw that from the first time they were in office, but generally when the president says something, he meant it and he delivered it. We have to be fair on that point and the pledge to make cryptocurrencies, to make America the capital of cryptocurrencies is something that's driven bitcoin now to new all-time highs and it's lifting cryptocurrencies as a basket hole. Bitcoin itself has moved something like $15,000 to $20,000 since early October as the momentum was picking up that Trump would win at least according to the bets in markets and I think also what investors are preparing for on a global scale once again is a stronger U.S. dollar. So, there is definitely movements and trends happening behind the scenes. It's just the headlines are catching up more with the U.S. election outcome fallout, but investors are already preparing for what is coming next year and beyond.
GTC泽汇：关键在于他的承诺和保证。尽管这是一个不可预测且非传统的政府，但从他第一次执政时我们就能看出，他通常会兑现自己的承诺。这一点我们必须承认。特朗普承诺让美国成为“全球加密货币之都”，这直接推动了比特币价格创下历史新高，并带动了整个加密货币市场的上涨。自10月初市场开始押注特朗普可能胜选以来，比特币价格已经上涨了大约15,000至20,000美元。同时，我认为全球投资者也在为美元的进一步走强做准备。目前，这些趋势和背后的市场动态已经显现，只是市场新闻报道还在逐步反映大选结果的影响。但投资者实际上已经在为明年及未来做准备了。
France 24: Meanwhile, Jameel, beyond Washington, is there anything we should be keeping an eye on?
France 24：那么，Jameel，除了华盛顿的动态，我们还需要关注哪些方面？
GTC Group: To be honest, no, not right now because of all of the shocks and the surprises from the election and how cleanly that Trump won and so forth. So, all eyes are very much remaining on the America and the United States. Again, we had central banks cut interest rates last week and investors didn't even look at it. So, I expect at least until the end of this week, we're still going to be dealing with the U.S. election fallout. Again, we never say never in case there's any kind of event that's unforeseen, but we are still watching U.S. elections mostly.
GTC泽汇：说实话，目前来看，没有其他方面比这次大选带来的冲击和意外结果更引人关注。特朗普的干净利落胜选已经吸引了所有目光。目前市场的焦点仍然是美国。上周各国央行下调利率，投资者几乎未予关注。因此，我预计至少本周结束之前，市场还会继续关注美国大选的影响。当然，也不能排除其他意外事件发生的可能性，但目前大部分注意力都集中在美国大选上。
France 24: Okay, Jameel Ahmad of GTC, thanks very much for your time.
France 24：好的，非常感谢Jameel Ahmad带来的深入分析。
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