美元走强与加密货币热潮:市场波动加剧的深度解析丨「GTC泽汇」首席分析师再做客FRANCE 24
-采访日期11.14 2024
France 24 连线「GTC泽汇」首席分析师Jameel Ahmad,深入解析全球市场动态:美元走强,加密货币市场波动加剧。比特币价格突破90,000美元,黄金价格下跌。特朗普承诺将美国打造成全球加密货币之都,吸引投资者关注。
GTC Group: The US dollar is getting stronger across the board. The US currency hit two-year highs just yesterday. That suggests that we could have some weakness in US markets based on investors starting to add more dollars into their portfolio. But generally, we're still seeing big pick-ups in volatilities behind the scenes. It's not just in global markets. It's in the foreign exchange, in currencies, commodities, crypto-currencies. We're seeing a lot of different action across different asset classes.
GTC泽汇:美元目前正全线走强,并在昨日触及了两年来的高点。这一趋势表明,随着投资者开始将更多美元纳入其投资组合,美国市场可能会呈现出一定的疲软态势。但总体来看,我们在幕后依然观察到了波动性的大幅增加。这种波动性不仅在全球市场普遍存在,还体现在外汇、货币、商品以及加密货币等多个资产类别上,市场动作频繁且多样化。
France 24: Well, you mentioned there the crypto-currencies, Jameel. And Bitcoin, a bit of an uncontested winner since the re-election of Donald Trump.
France 24:Jameel,您刚才提到了加密货币。自从特朗普再次当选以来,比特币似乎已经成为了一个无可争议的赢家。
GTC Group: Absolutely uncontested. It's unanimous. Bitcoin prices pointed towards 90,000 US dollars yesterday. That would be the first time ever that they touched 90,000. Of course, one of those huge pledges from the Trump campaign was that America would be made into the crypto capital of the world, which obviously appeases for this certain investor's Generation Z, millennials. But as you know, institutions over the past one to two years have put more of an eye on crypto-currencies. Of course, we still don't have the method behind how the United States is going to be made into the crypto capital, but it's sentiment-driven. And now we are starting to touch 90,000. It's only going to be a matter of time before we see 100,000, but as long as we get plans as to how this new administration, when it's inaugurated early next year, is going to be able to develop America into the crypto capital of the world. But of course, on the headline, it sounds very good. And on the headline, that's led to Bitcoin prices going up by more than 20% over the past couple of weeks.
GTC泽汇:确实如此,无可争议。昨天,比特币价格历史上首次突破了90,000美元大关。特朗普在竞选中提出的一个重大承诺就是要将美国打造为“全球加密货币之都”,这显然迎合了部分投资者的需求,尤其是Z世代和千禧一代。同时,过去一两年间,各大机构也开始更加关注加密货币领域。当然,目前我们还没有明确的计划来了解美国将如何具体实现“加密货币之都”的愿景,但市场情绪对此持非常乐观的态度。如今价格已经站上90,000美元,突破100,000美元似乎也只是时间问题。然而,要实现这一目标,还需要新政府在明年年初就职后提出具体的发展规划。尽管如此,从表面上看,这一承诺确实颇具吸引力,也正是这种市场情绪推动了比特币价格在过去几周内上涨了超过20%。
France 24: And I have to say, listening to you, Jameel, I'm thinking it's time to maybe still invest in Bitcoin. However, there has been another big loser in recent days. It's gold.
France 24:听您这么说,Jameel,我觉得现在或许仍然是投资比特币的一个良好时机。不过,在最近几天里,还有一个明显的“输家”,那就是黄金。
GTC Group: Yes. So one month ago today, pretty much, gold prices hit the all-time high, close to 2,720 US dollars. Speaking today, we are coming towards below 2,600. So we've seen, specifically, sharp drops since the US election fallout. I think there's a couple of different reasons. One, the US dollar has strengthened internationally, and gold is obviously dominating in dollars. But one of those trump trades was also that we could see weaker gold prices, and that might be because of his promises and his pledges to also prevent and stop what is still very regrettable and unfortunate geopolitical conflicts. And I wonder if that's also contributing to investors taking some profit, or they are just putting more and more diversification of their portfolio into the US currency.
GTC泽汇:是的,差不多一个月前,黄金价格达到了历史新高,接近每盎司2,720美元。然而,截至今天,金价已经接近跌破2,600美元。自美国大选结果公布以来,黄金价格出现了明显的下跌趋势。我认为这背后有几个原因:首先,美元在国际市场上表现强势,而黄金主要以美元计价;其次,特朗普的一些政策预期也可能对金价产生负面影响,比如他承诺要遏制并结束仍然令人遗憾的地缘政治冲突。我猜测,这可能促使部分投资者选择获利了结,或者将更多资产分散投资于美元资产中,从而导致黄金价格承受压力。
France 24: Okay, Jameel Ahmad, thanks very much, indeed, as always, for bringing us your insight.
France 24:好的,Jameel Ahmad,非常感谢您一如既往地为我们带来深刻的见解和分析。